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State set to devote extra funds to big projects, but where is the money coming from?
State set to devote extra funds to big projects, but where is the money coming from?

Irish Times

time22-07-2025

  • Business
  • Irish Times

State set to devote extra funds to big projects, but where is the money coming from?

When the Government publishes its key economic documents on Tuesday, the natural focus will be on where the extra investment is being targeted. A key question involves additional resources being devoted to projects in housing, water, energy and transport in the revised National Development Plan. What will this mean for other parts of the budget and where is the money going to come from? We should get some clue from the second major document, the Summer Economic Statement (SES), which looks at the outlook for the budget. Here, the key question is whether extra spending has left less room for day-to-day supports and tax reductions to be factored into the budget. The SES will give some indication of room for manoeuvre in the budget – in other words, what the package on the day will cost. The budget ministers, Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers , are likely to indicate that less money is available this year. READ MORE David McWilliams on how 'big incentives' to build could save Dublin city Listen | 36:51 They are also likely to repeat the assertion that there is no cost-of-living package this year. How both of these commitments survive the run-up to the actual budget remains to be seen. A key issue to watch for concerns budget overruns and whether the Government is going to take action to stop them happening this year. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, the budget watchdog, has said that the spending allocations for this year were flawed from day one, because they failed to build in overruns in 2024. With the council estimating overruns of €2 billion-plus this year, does the Cabinet plan to rein these in? And what does it mean for 2026? The goal of keeping spending growth to 5 per cent a year, set in 2021, was quickly consigned to the dustbin. So, what will now replace it? Or is it just a case of spending whatever cash is available every year?

Budget boosts of up to €1,000 per person dropped as Ministers seek era of restraint
Budget boosts of up to €1,000 per person dropped as Ministers seek era of restraint

Irish Times

time15-07-2025

  • Business
  • Irish Times

Budget boosts of up to €1,000 per person dropped as Ministers seek era of restraint

The complete elimination of one-off payments and a sharp reduction in current spending growth are likely in this year's budget, as payments that have benefited the average worker by about €1,000 each are pulled back, according to several people involved in the process These two elements, plus a significant boost to capital spending, are likely to form the basis of a restrained budget in the face of economic uncertainty. Discussions between Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers and the Taoiseach and Tánaiste continued last night at Government Buildings. They also considered the State's response to the threat of 30 per cent tariffs on EU exports to the United States. Sources insisted that the elimination of the one-off payments of recent years – in the shape of energy credits and double welfare and child benefit payments – has been agreed by Government leaders, though they also say this will entail significant political difficulty for the Coalition. Moreover, it is likely to be challenged internally as the budget approaches. READ MORE There is also wide agreement that the increases in current spending of 8 to 9 per cent in recent years will be reduced significantly, perhaps towards 5 per cent, though this will have implications for budgetary questions such as the increase in welfare rates. The policy of spending restraint is likely to be central to the summer economic statement, which is due to be published next week. The statement is usually delivered at the start of July, but has been delayed by internal wrangles and uncertain global outlook, further evidenced by US president Donald Trump's threat of tariffs over the weekend. There is also certain to be a boost to capital spending on infrastructure announced next week when the revised National Development Plan is published. Mr Chambers has been working through lists of projects with line Ministers in recent weeks and the plan is expected to mean significant additional spending on housing, water and power infrastructure. However, some of the more extravagant requests from Ministers have been denied. Could Mary Lou McDonald be about to enter the presidential race? Listen | 41:13 Coalition sources say that the spending increases on infrastructure will come at the cost of restraint in current expenditure, which will not expand at anything like the rate of recent years. The Government mood is said to have grown more pessimistic in recent months as threats to the economy and multinational sector grow. Officials have pointed to declining growth forecasts and sources involved in the process say that there is a settled view that the Republic's response must be to set a more cautious and restrained budgetary policy. However, there is also an awareness of the potential political cost of ending the cost-of-living payments while also holding down welfare increases and any tax adjustments. The Coalition has been under pressure from the Opposition in the Dáil recently on cost-of-living increases which politicians in all parties say is still a big issue for the public. Inflation has come down from close to 10 per cent in the aftermath of the pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine to less than 2 per cent. . Meanwhile, Mr Chambers will update the Cabinet on State spending for the first half of 2025 when it meets this morning. The end-of-June expenditure memo shows current expenditure is up 6.5 per cent compared to the first six months of 2024. Capital expenditure is up 22.5 per cent. Mr Chambers will confirm that capital investment will be stepped up in the revised National Development Plan next week.

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